Portugal has tightened its immigration rules after years of very rapid growth in the foreign population and growing pressure on the country’s immigration system. The change may help the government regain control of migration, but it could also create a new challenge: Portugal still needs workers.
Construction, agriculture, tourism, healthcare and other industries already face labour shortages. With fewer migrants expected to enter through the previous routes, the question now is whether Portugal can fill those gaps through local workers, higher productivity and more selective immigration.
Why did Portugal tighten immigration rules?
Portugal’s government said the previous system had become difficult for the state to manage.
The Manifestação de Interesse route was ended in June 2024, and Law No. 61/2025, published in October 2025, formally amended the immigration law and revoked residence procedures based on that route.
The government has argued that the changes are intended to create a more controlled and regulated immigration system, improve border and residence procedures and make migration better matched to Portugal’s ability to integrate newcomers.
There was also a major administrative problem: AIMA inherited a very large number of unresolved cases after the transition from SEF.
By May 2026, the government said its extraordinary operation had held 763,000 appointments and made decisions on more than 525,000 cases, including 473,000 positive decisions.
The policy has therefore been about reducing uncontrolled inflows and making the system more manageable, rather than ending immigration altogether.
The problem Portugal could face: who will do the work?
This is where the story becomes much bigger than immigration paperwork.
The OECD’s 2026 Economic Survey of Portugal says immigration has become a key source of labour in Portugal, while labour shortages are increasing in important sectors. It specifically points to manufacturing, construction and healthcare, as well as seasonal industries.
At the same time, Portugal is ageing.
According to INE, Portugal had 1,597,539 foreign citizens living in the country at the end of 2025, representing 14.0% of the resident population. Between 2021 and 2025, the foreign population increased by 849,384 people.
That does not mean all those people arrived because of work, nor that every foreign worker is in a shortage occupation.
But it shows the scale of the change Portugal has experienced — and why a sharp reduction in immigration can have consequences for the labour market.
Construction could become more expensive
Portugal needs more housing, renovation and infrastructure.
But construction companies need workers, and the OECD says skill shortages have already contributed to rising construction costs.
Portugal’s labour-market information from EURES also identifies shortages of specialised construction workers in several regions.
If the supply of foreign workers becomes smaller while demand for construction remains strong, companies could have to compete harder for workers.
That could mean higher wages, higher project costs or longer construction times.
Why this matters for ordinary people
The effect would not necessarily stop at construction companies.
If building becomes more expensive or takes longer, it could make it harder to increase the supply of new homes quickly — an important issue in a country already dealing with housing affordability problems.
This does not mean tighter immigration rules will automatically cause house prices to rise.
The housing market has many other causes, including land costs, planning rules, financing, construction productivity and demand. The OECD identifies several of these structural problems alongside labour shortages.
Agriculture could struggle to find seasonal workers
Agriculture presents a different problem.
Farm work often depends on seasonal labour, particularly during harvesting periods. EURES identifies recruitment needs for seasonal agricultural work in Portugal, including fruit harvesting in several regions.
A farmer cannot always postpone harvesting for several weeks because enough workers were not available.
If labour becomes harder to find, farms could respond by raising wages, investing in machinery, changing production methods or recruiting workers through regulated migration channels.
Portugal has already recognised this issue.
In April 2025, AIMA launched a regulated labour-migration protocol involving employer organisations from sectors including agriculture, construction, commerce and tourism.
The protocol is designed to make recruitment of foreign workers more organised while keeping employers responsible for contracts, accommodation and other requirements.
That could become increasingly important if domestic workers cannot fill seasonal vacancies.
Hotels and restaurants could face another test
Portugal’s tourism industry is heavily dependent on people.
The OECD says tourism directly accounted for 12.1% of total employment in 2023, while the sector continues to face labour shortages. It specifically identifies migration as one possible part of the response to those shortages.
EURES also reports shortages in occupations including restaurant professionals, cooks and other tourism workers in different parts of Portugal.
If hotels and restaurants cannot find enough staff, businesses have several choices.
They could increase wages, raise prices, reduce opening hours, limit capacity or invest in technology.
For tourists and residents, the effect could eventually be visible through higher prices or fewer services, particularly during peak seasons.
Healthcare could face greater pressure
Healthcare is another area where Portugal cannot easily replace missing workers with machines.
The OECD identifies healthcare among the sectors experiencing labour shortages and says Portugal needs to improve the way it attracts and retains foreign workers with needed skills.
A tighter immigration system therefore creates a particular challenge for professions where training a new worker can take years.
If Portugal needs doctors, nurses, healthcare assistants or other specialists and cannot recruit enough people from inside the country, the pressure could fall on the existing workforce.
That could mean more competition for staff, longer recruitment periods and greater pressure on employers to improve pay and working conditions.
Technology and skilled jobs could also be affected
The immigration debate is not only about farm workers, cleaners or construction workers.
Portugal also needs engineers, technology specialists and other highly skilled professionals.
The OECD says Portugal should simplify and digitalise visa and residence procedures, particularly for students and skilled workers, and improve the recognition of foreign qualifications.
This creates an important risk for companies.
If a Portuguese company finds a highly skilled worker abroad but the immigration process takes too long, the worker may choose another country instead.
Portugal would then lose not only a worker, but potentially skills, tax revenue, business activity and future investment associated with that person.
Smaller towns and rural areas could feel the impact
The effects may not be the same everywhere.
Some of Portugal’s agricultural, tourism and construction jobs are concentrated outside Lisbon and Porto, while several regions already report shortages in particular occupations.
EURES identifies regional needs ranging from fruit-harvesting workers and agricultural technicians to construction workers, chefs, healthcare professionals and ICT specialists.
If fewer foreign workers are available, employers in smaller towns and rural areas may find recruitment especially difficult.
That could make it harder for some businesses to expand — or even to operate throughout the year.
Portugal’s ageing population makes the problem more serious
This may be the biggest long-term issue.
INE reports that Portugal’s ageing index reached 188.8 older people for every 100 young people in 2025, compared with 178.3 in 2021.
In other words, Portugal has far more older people than children and young people.
That matters because the economy needs enough working-age people to support businesses and public services.
The OECD warns that population ageing and labour shortages are expected to weigh on Portugal’s economic growth, despite the large inflow of foreign workers in recent years.
If immigration falls, Portugal will have to find other ways to increase the number of people working and the amount of work each person can produce.
Wages could rise — but so could business costs
There is an important positive side to a tighter labour market.
If employers have fewer workers to choose from, they may have to offer better wages and working conditions.
That could benefit Portuguese and foreign workers already living in the country.
But there is another side.
Businesses facing higher labour costs may pass some of those costs on through higher prices, reduce expansion plans or invest more heavily in automation.
The final effect will depend on how severe the worker shortage becomes and how quickly businesses can adapt.
Automation could accelerate
A shortage of workers can force companies to find new solutions.
Agricultural businesses could invest in harvesting technology. Construction companies could increase the use of prefabrication and machinery. Hotels and restaurants could expand digital check-in, automated ordering and other technologies.
This could eventually make Portugal more productive.
But automation cannot replace every worker, particularly in jobs involving personal care, healthcare, hospitality and many skilled trades.
The likely result is therefore not simply “fewer workers”.
It could be fewer workers doing more work with better technology, combined with stronger competition for people whose jobs are difficult to automate.
What could happen next?
My assessment, based on the current government policy and the labour-market evidence, is that Portugal is unlikely to move toward simply “no immigration”.
A more likely direction is selective immigration: fewer broad routes for people to regularise their status after arrival, but faster or more organised routes for workers whom employers can demonstrate they need.
That direction is already visible in the regulated labour-migration protocol and in the new qualified job-seeker visa created by the amended immigration law.
If labour shortages worsen, pressure is likely to grow on the government to make these legal work routes faster and more predictable, particularly for construction, agriculture, tourism, healthcare and other shortage occupations.
At the same time, employers are likely to face stronger pressure to raise wages, improve working conditions and invest in productivity and automation rather than rely on a constantly expanding supply of foreign labour.
The biggest question is whether those changes will happen quickly enough.
The question Portugal now faces
Portugal has a legitimate reason to want a more controlled immigration system.
But controlling immigration and reducing the supply of workers are not the same thing.
The country now has to balance two realities: it wants to manage migration more tightly, while its economy is ageing and already has shortages in several important occupations.
If Portugal gets that balance right, the new system could mean more organised migration, better protection for workers and employers, and a closer link between immigration and genuine labour needs.
If the supply of workers falls faster than businesses and the government can adapt, however, the pressure could appear in very ordinary places: a construction site waiting for workers, a farm looking for harvest labour, a hotel struggling to staff its rooms, a hospital searching for healthcare professionals or a company unable to hire the skills it needs.
That is what makes Portugal’s immigration changes bigger than an immigration story.
They could become a labour-market story — and eventually an economic-growth story.
What to watch next
- AIMA processing: Are legal work and residence applications becoming faster?
- Labour shortages: Are employers reporting more vacancies that they cannot fill?
- Wages and prices: Are labour costs rising in construction, agriculture and tourism?
- New legal migration: Can Portugal bring in the workers it needs through its new regulated channels?
- Productivity: Are companies responding with better pay, training and automation?
The answers to those questions will show whether Portugal’s tighter immigration policy can be matched by a labour market capable of replacing the workers who no longer arrive through the old routes.
Bikrant Niure is an immigration analyst and writer, and the founder of PortuGuide and Citizhub—a specialized app tracking Portuguese nationality applications. Based in Portugal since 2018, he translates complex AIMA regulations, visa frameworks, and legal updates into actionable guides for the expat community.